Tuesday, July 15, 2008

Bailout, "rescue package" and so on

NPR can't spend fifteen minutes without saying "buyout" or "rescue". For those with ADD in the news room: not a single cent changed hands yet. All Feds did was to _promise_ that they will give money to Freddy and Fanny. That should be enough to calm down the markets. Somebody has to pay attention to the numbers - unless the Fs were heavily concentrated in subprime debt, the rate of failure of ordinary loans does not warrant the kind of excitement that we see in the markets. According to Mortgage Bankers Association, "The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process was 2.47 percent at the end of the first quarter, an increase of 43 basis points from the fourth quarter of 2007 and 119 basis points from one year ago." (http://www.mortgagebankers.org/NewsandMedia/PressCenter/62936.htm) I really doubt that this kind of failure rate can bring down Fs in the absence of market panic.

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