Some commentaries on Climategate

No, not my commentaries. Those are found in the answers to Derek Lowe's Climategate and Scientific Conduct


They may be just plants, but if they aren't, they are extremely revealing.

David P on December 1, 2009 11:24 AM writes...

I hate the fact that the way of doing science is undermined by this scandal.
I had (have still even) hopes that climate change would be the thing that got developed countries to be less wasteful, which seems to me to be a good thing regardless of the effect on the planet.

"Who cares if the science is right or wrong - I just need a club to bash the fat capitalists with"

17. rob on December 1, 2009 11:10 AM writes...

Derek says the results of climate science have to be very good and very convincing if we're going to believe them.

I agree.

So where are the safety data showing that pumping gigatons of CO2 into the air is an ok thing to do? Where are the coal companies' data and models? The oil companies'?

And can we please plow through the last N years of internal emails from these companies as well? Or those from the lobbies they fund?

Why don't you hold polluting companies to a standard that even remotely approaches the one you hold climate scientists to? Or even the one that-- you say-- pharma companies routinely meet. After all, as you rightly say, the stakes are enormous.

How do you justify using different standards for different institutions?

In other words, to disprove a theory, you have to come up with an alternative theory that is just as well researched. Wrong! To disprove a theory all you need is to demonstrate that it does not fit the data. There is no law that one model has to be replaced by another - we're just as likely to have no model at all! The predictions of AGW do not fit the data without "massaging". Throw it out and start looking again. In the meantime, go back to business as usual - you have no scientific basis to change anything.

History's judgement of Bush

As we stand on the edge of changing this great country for ever, on the precipice of falling back into the Old World from which we have risen so magnificently - I can't help but thinking of the man who made it all possible.

I am thinking of you, Mr. Bush 48. You probably hope that history will remember you for free Iraq. Your opponents hope that you will be judged on Katrina and Patriot Act. But I think the real thing remembered after 100 years about you will be Obama.

You see, Mr. Bush - it's your heavy hand and dumb mistakes in execution allowed our nation to elect someone so personally vacuous and ideologically socialist as Obama. Your presidency's main result was the feeling of anger against you that allowed the election of the man responsible for all the disasters we see now.

I hope you're happy with your legacy, Mr. Bush. Stimulus, Climate Bill, Social Medicine. All this became possible because of you.

Who has the right to forgive?

I've read the most excellent post from Erik Raymond on Polansky affair. He says very correct things there:

Yes, Polanski is a contemptible scumbag, and no, I don’t buy the notion that artists should be exempt from civilized standards of behavior, and no, I’m not basing my evaluation on some legal technicality or the rumors of judicial misprison around his 1977 trial. No; my position is that Polanski should be let go because that’s what Samantha Gailey says she wants — and, as the victim of his rape, hers is the only choice that I think should matter a damn.

(emphasis is by Erik)

Unfortunately, I have to disagree with him. I've had an experience Erik probably did not have - to be born in a country that vanished from the globe. Atlantians must have had the same feeling, or the citizen of Byzantium who escaped to Russia after the final sack. There is nowhere to return. The place is there, but it's alien - even more alien than whatever is around you now.
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What's the connnection to Polansky affair? The grown woman that answers the name of Samantha Gailey has no more right to forgive the scumbag than you, me, the judge or the prosecutors. The only human being who could forgive him was the thirteen years old girl he violated. And that girl is gone, twenty years gone. The woman by the same name only has some tenuous connection to Polansky - enough to demenad revenge, but not enough to forgive.

My attempt at googlewhack

Here is the name of action hero that my son Michael invented: Dentreoss.

Before I put this in Blogger, this brings no Google hits.

Let's see what happens now :)

Update:

Yesss!

We have achieved a googlewhack!

Michael will be so proud.

Safety net versus the tightrope

I am hearing a lot of arguments against socialized medicine recently. All these arguments are good, and all of them will not sway anybody, because the people who want the health care from the Government simply cannot fathom a "no" answer to any question. At best, it's "Not yet" or "Not until we do something". The idea that Government is simply incapable of providing the current level of medical services to everybody will simply not enter the brains of such people.

So it is with no hope at all that I advance another argument. I guess I just like see my thoughts typed up, that's all.

Here is a leading question: once you provided the safety net, do you still need a tightrope? Or the acrobat can just walk about on the net?

Our current arrangements are the tightrope. It lets you do really amazing things, but once you fall off, you're in big trouble. However, as imperfect as our safety net is, it does exist.

If you don't have enough money to pay for the treatment, you simply need more money. You can borrow, beg from private charity, beg the doctor to lower the price, or even apply for government program. It's only money, after all. No one ever said the sacrificing you health or life for money is a moral thing to do. You, the sick man, have the moral advantage. The blood-sucking insurance is rightfully despised by everyone.

Now consider the case of socialized medicine. Your health is no longer in danger due to someone's greed. You're denied treatment for the Greater Good. To ask Powers That Be to change their decision would be almost amoral. Who are you to argue with the public-spirited formulas devised with the collective welfare in mind?

And now you find that a hole in safety net is much worse when there is no tightrope. The charity of the last resort, our Government, became the first line of defense. And behind that line - nothing. All doctors work for government, so there is no begging them. And private charity, while happy to help the victims of greed, will not help those rightfully condemned by the great moral authority of Government, mere drags on our precious collective resources.

So there it goes: by turning the last-resort measures into everyday routine, we've stripped any redundancy from the system. We're at the mercy of any flaw or fraud that happens to show up.

California - tax as you pay

So California is now payibg with IOUs.

Nice.

And IOUs can be cashed now at 25% discount by some banks. So if you need money, California government essentially taxed you 25% on the spot. Isn't nice?

Logitech Squeezebox Duet? iPod!

I've been looking for a way to get my computer music stores to my stereo for a long, long time. Many a longing sight I cast'd towards Squeezebox Duet. And then finally the time was there - I got rid of the old Sony 50-CD changer (what a dead-end piece of mistake!) and it was time to commit to a decision.

And then it hit me: iPod and a dock!

I now see why Duet and its brethren have such hard time getting sold. I've got an iPod Classic on eBay and a dock at Costco. All told, it was about the price of high-end stereo (the dock is not high-end, although it comes with a subwoofer). And now all my music is available on the computer, in the bedroom, eventually in the family room when I'll get a small portable dock, and on the road!

I never though of it this way, but iPod is a real alternative to streaming stereo...

Shortage of crucial materials causes alarm in Software Development

One of the crucial parts of American economy, the Software Development Industry, has been hit hard by the ongoing recession. Many companies are announcing larger than usual losses and layoffs. And, not unlike the Airlines, the Software Industry has to contend with high prices on a crucial raw material.

An advanced development process known as Cut and Paste technique has been very popular with software developers for decades. It is not dissimilar to "plagiarism" known in research and literary world, but much more convenient. Unfortunately, while the Cut is readily available and cheap, the world supply of Paste has come under considerable pressure lately. Cut and Paste development is becoming more and more expensive, adding to other pressures the Software Industry is straining under.

"We can hardly afford the cost of Paste any more" - says Jeffrey Zarenburg, a Software Analyst with Regal Bank of Software. "We can cut things just like we used to, but pasting them has became almost uneconomical."

The industry analysts suggest a demand-side explanation for the shortage of Paste: the newly-grown use for Paste in China and India, where the Consulting Companies are deploying the Cut and Paste methodology to keep their hourly rates down. As Western Software Development companies outsource more and more to those emergent markets, we expect the use of Paste to reach heretofoer unknown levels.

Flattering Four Block World

I've discovered FBW recently, and here is my "sincerest form of flattery":

A device to snare the unwary	TRAP
A law passed to save US banks	TARP

"what a difference!"

Obama as "Object in Chief"

OK, I understand now - the whole presidential campaign was just an exercise in Object Oriented Programming. Deprogramming will now take four years.

Shalom means what?

OK, OK, the "o" got cut off. I'll take off my tinfoil hat now.

Open note to the Republican Senators who voted for the Stimulus

Ladies and Gentleman,

You do realize that no matter what transpires, you'll lose the next election, don't you? You'll lose either to a triumphant Democrat whose Stimulus worked, or to an angry Republican in the primaries because the stimulus tanked.

Therefore I have to conclude that you voted purely for the good of the country as you see it. I have to admire your courage, even if I utterly disagree with your conclusions. My hat is off to you, ladies and gentleman. You did the wrong thing for the right reason.

Bush's legacy

Bush may have some ideas about his legacy. Like, his legacy will be a Free Iraq, or may be 9/11 story. In the worst case, it's the Catrina catastrophe.

Well, no. Bush's legacy has not been determined yet. Bush's legacy is ... Obama. Depending on how Obama's presidency plays out, Bush will be remembered as the man whose errors brought the first Black president to the White Hose. Or as a man whose errors paved the way to the complete and utter destruction of the American way of life.

It must be tough to depend on such an unknown quantity. My condolenses, Mr. President.

Notes on Inagural sppech

First off, let me note that this looked more a Coronation than Inauguration. Too many people expect Obama to do for them something they cannot imagine doing for themselves, give them the cake to have and eat too. Almost like the king curing diseases with placing of hands.

Not since Washington such fervent expectations were concentrated on one man. When Washington came to power, we had no country - he was, in a very important sense, the country. Obama is the 44th President, and we do have a country now. Yet people act in such a way as if he indeed was the only hope for this country, for this people. Almost like L'etat, s'est moi.

Now on to parts of speech that struck a wrong tone with me.

>>>>>>>>>
Our health care is too costly;
<<<<<<<<<

No, it's too good. The cost is a bargain when you consider what doctors can accomplish nowadays. And yet in a sense, it's too costly too - we don't have the resource to provide all the available care to all who needs it. How to ration the resources is a valid question. Pretending that no rationing is needed is not a valid answer.



>>>>>>>>
and each day brings further evidence that the ways we use energy ... threaten our planet.
<<<<<<<<

Nope. Nowadays, each day brings evidence that the computer programs that say that our energy threatens the planets are laughably incapable of making correct predictions. Just as the science turns away from MMGW, the politics are turning towards it.


>>>>>>>>>>
Less measurable but no less profound is a sapping of confidence across our land — a nagging fear that America's decline is inevitable, and that the next generation must lower its sights.
Today I say to you that the challenges we face are real. They are serious and they are many. They will not be met easily or in a short span of time. But know this, America — they will be met.
<<<<<<<<<<

Well, Obama is right that we have a confidence problem. "Blame America First" in our schools and colleges has a lot to do with it - we're raising a generation ashamed to be Americans. But as to "lowering sights" and "decline" - I am afraid these challenges cannot be met. We do have to lower our sights. We can't afford to give every family a house, no matter what Community Reinvestment Act says. We can't keep our nature pristine and have all the gadgets our heart desires - someone has to handel the durty chemicals. We can't pay our autoworkers like doctors, and doctors like janitors - we get sick carcompanies and healthy fraud. Yes, the next generation needs to learn that even here, in the blessed land of United States, we cannot live well just because we live here. We need to work, to produce things, to take risks. When it takes seven years to erect a building that used to take 1.5 year - we've got fat and slow. Time to lower our sights away from pristine politically correct Californian Paradise and go back to that durty thing they call "work'.


>>>>>>
On this day, we gather because we have chosen hope over fear, unity of purpose over conflict and discord.
<<<<<<

Errr... How is this day different from all other days? Do we ever gather because we have chosen
fear, conflict and discord? And in any case, we're gathering today to swear in an elected official, not because we "have chosen" anything. There is that royal thing again.

>>>>>>>
On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn out dogmas, that for far too long have strangled our politics.
<<<<<<<

Obama may actually mean thins in the best of senses. I hope he does - he seems like a decent sort from afar. What the listeners are hearing though is "We come to proclaim the end of Bush". And of course, that interpetation simpli means that one set of grievances, promises, dogmas and recriminations is replaced with another.


>>>>>>>>
We remain a young nation, but in the words of Scripture, the time has come to set aside childish things.
<<<<<<<<

Now this is truly scary. What "childish things" from our nation's earlier age does Mr. President mean? I am afraid to even speculate.

>>>>>>
to choose our better history;
<<<<<<

Huh? How do you chose a better history? What was that from Bertold Brecht: "The People failed to live up to the Gornment's expectations. We need to elect a better People".


I love the next paragraph, starting at "In reaffirming the greatness of our nation, we understand that greatness is never a given". It is at odds with the rest of the speech, but it's something I support with all my heart.

And then we get back to the original drivel.

>>>
For us, they... For us, they.... For us, they...
struggled and sacrificed and worked till their hands were raw so that we might live a better life.
<<<

No. Not for us. Apart may be from the militay victories in the last part, the people who crossed the oceans, settled the West, worked in sweatshop di not do it for anyone. The whole damn point was that they were sick and tired of doing it for "someone". They wanted to do things for themselves, and may be their immediate family. This is the power of America - no one works for greatnes of the country, the royal family's honor, the radiant future. The overwhelming majority of us work to make our (mine!) own lilfe better. My hat is off to those who defend us in the armed forces or go into politics out of obligationj to the couuntry (if such politicians indeed exist). But such people are a tiny minorit, and that is as it should be. We all owe it to the country, but the best way to pay back is to make your own family better off, and then do some charity. Only in emrgencies we need to do things "for us".

And what's with "endured the lash of the whip"? I will not accept the legacy of slavery as my own. Mister Jefferson's overseer did not whip his slaves so that I could have my nice country, thank you very much. If the White House is indeed build by slaves, I say let's ter it down and rebuild again.

>>>>>>>>
Our workers are no less productive than when this crisis began.Our minds are no less inventive, our goods and services no less needed than they were last week or last month or last year. Our capacity remains undiminished.
<<<<<<<<

Our workers are no less productive, but it turns out they are so expensive, their productivity is not profitable. Our capacity is indeed diminished, and our environmental laws and labor regilations keep whittling it down. We used to be the best place to make money in the whole world - not any more. Things get done quicker in China, in India, in Dubai - in a lot of places. This is what we need to fix to save our economy.

>>>>>
we will act — not only to create new jobs, but to lay a new foundation for growth.
<<<<<

I assume "we" here means the government. Oh well. Obama has a lesson to learn: government does not create jobs, and it certainly does not lay any foundations for growth. Businesses create jobs, and inventors lay foundations. Government can only destroy jobs (e.g. in coal inndustry) and create dependency (e.g. subsidized windmills).

There is a lot more of "we" in there. And funny enough, for every point he makes, the government can actually accomplish it by butting out. Butting out of electrical power grids (environment impact review, anone?) and digital lines (telecomm monopoly?), out of alternative fuels (GM plant sfor fuel? Farm subsidies?), out of colleges and universities (affirmative action? something studies? Foundation for the Arts?). And I don't think that's what he has in mind.

>>>>>>>
imagination is joined to common purpose
<<<<<<<

Nope, common purpose has nothing to do with our achievement. If anything, it's "imagination joined to private gain". The only time we had good use for common purpose was during the world wars. Do we want to bring that time back?


>>>>>>>>>>>
he question we ask today is not whether our government is too big or too small, but whether it works — whether it helps families find jobs at a decent wage, care they can afford, a retirement that is dignified.
<<<<<<<<<<<

This is so scary, I, again, am afraid to even speculate. All of these things used to be from men and women themsleves, not from government. Care to guess if "big" or "small" is more likely?


>>>>>
but this crisis has reminded us that without a watchful eye, the market can spin out of control
<<<<<

Nope, this crisis remonds us that goernment cannot legislate profit, and that greedy peopl will find a way to profit on ongoing disaster even if they did not start it.

>>>>>
faced down fascism and communism not just with missiles and tanks, but with sturdy alliances
<<<<<

Our allies against Fascism include Stalin, and agains Communism Saudi Arabia, Pinochet and Mojaheddin. Do we want any more such allies?


>>>>>
To the Muslim world, we seek a new way forward, based on mutual interest and mutual respect.
<<<<<

Did you say "mutual"?


>>>>>>>
nor can we consume the world's resources without regard to effect. For the world has changed, and we must change with it.
<<<<<<<

Another Malus. Oh crap. The most profound change in the world over last hundred years is the realization that the most immportant resource is knowledge, information, technology. That resource we can consume in unlimite quantities, and it allows us to save all other resource.



>>>>
As we consider the road that unfolds before us, we remember with humble gratitude those brave Americans who, at this very hour, patrol far-off deserts and distant mountains.
<<<<

Another piece that does not jibe with the rest of teh speech. I thank you for saying this, Mr. Obama, but it really hangs in the air, with no connection to what precedes it. It feels almost like a late add-in.

In fact, from that point on I read with admiration. I don't know if the real Obama is the first two thords or the last third of the speech, but they are very different. I hope and pray to God that the man who remembered the words about "the depth of winter, when nothing but hope and virtue could survive " is indeed the man who is right now about to get some rest after a long day, at 1600 Pensilvania Avenue.

Governmet is not the country. Or so it used to be,

The US have always been a special place because the government did not pretend to be the country. Washington was just another mid-level city, less important than Detroit or San Diego. Nowadays it's changing. Washington is indeed becoming the center of the country. "The government is not 'small' or 'big' - it helps Americans or it does not". In other words, government's job is to help Americans. Wrong. Its job is to provide law enforcement, defense, some common infrastructure (the kind that cannot be made profitable), and may be help to those who absolutely can't help themselves - disabled and destitute elderly with no children, I guess. Americans are supposed to help themselves and to help each other. That how US became a great country.